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煤價“旺季不旺”8月或將跌破600元/噸

發布日期:2018-08-14 瀏覽次數:2104

  

時間:[2018-08-13 ] 信息來源:中電新聞網
8月6日,國家統計局公布2018年7月下旬流通領域重要生產資料市場價格變動情況。數據顯示,7月下旬全國煤炭價格穩中有跌。以山西大混(5000大卡)和山西優混(5500大卡)為例,價格分別為551.4元/噸和565元/噸,或小幅下跌,或與上期持平。


  7月是“迎峰度夏”的傳統煤炭消費旺季,但是“旺季不旺”卻成為近期煤炭市場的主旋律。記者經梳理發現,本輪煤炭價格下跌始于6月上旬,雖然7月上旬一度小幅上漲,但隨后又重新開啟下跌模式。是何原因致使本輪煤價下跌?

  煤炭庫存居高不下日耗低于市場預期

  近期,全國受高溫天氣影響,居民防暑降溫用電需求上升,電廠日耗水平出現小幅增加。7月31日,沿海6大電廠日耗煤量為81.4萬噸,較月初增加3.3萬噸,增幅為4.2%;存煤可用天數為18.2天,與月初相比減少0.6天。

  雖然主要電廠的日耗有所增長,但較去年同期增幅并不明顯,也明顯遜于市場普遍預期。同時,7月份下游部分高耗能產業的錯峰生產降低了工業用電需求,致使沿海市場去庫存的節奏較為緩慢。數據顯示,7月31日,沿海6大電廠庫存合計1483.2萬噸,較月初增加14.1萬噸;8月1日,環渤海9大港口合計存煤2667萬噸。顯然,居高不下的庫存是近期旺季煤價下行的重要原因。

  與此同時,各水電大省近期降雨充足,水電替代效應明顯。以湖南、湖北地區為例,7月份降水量較大,水電出力明顯提高,7月初,三峽開始滿負荷發電,至今出庫流量依然維持在3萬立方米/秒的高位。多種因素的共同作用之下,消費需求的釋放并沒有推高旺季煤炭價格。

  供應與運力得到保障長協促價格穩定

  近兩個月來,在“保供應、穩煤價”政策引導下,山西、內蒙古等地煤炭先進產能加快釋放,煤炭產量增加。據工業和信息化部和中國煤炭工業協會統計,2018年1~6月,大型煤炭企業原煤產量完成12.7億噸,同比增加0.9億噸,上漲7.4%。

  運力方面,大秦線開足馬力加快發運,7月上中旬日均運量升至129萬噸。7月下旬,受鐵路間歇性限速和維修影響,進車降至日均124萬噸,跌幅較小,對供應影響不大。同時,朔黃線、蒙冀線也在擴能增量,全力多拉快運,使環渤海港口的運輸保持繁忙態勢。煤炭向港口和下游轉移的速度加快,使得沿海、沿江以及接卸港口庫存均處于高位。  

  另一方面,國內能源企業紛紛響應國家號召,與電力企業簽訂長協合同,對煤價起到了一定的穩定作用。如國家能源集團,就在7月中旬與國內重點電力企業簽訂了每年合同量接近3000萬噸的3年長協合同,在一定程度上減少了供需波動,實現了煤炭價格平穩。據業內人士透露,目前用戶大多對煤礦發運的長協煤炭保持剛性拉運,而對市場煤的需求較為低迷,只有零星采購,煤炭現貨市場交易冷清,價格難以提升。

  一位業內人士對記者表示,隨著立秋之后氣溫走低,用電量下降,8月煤價跌破600元/噸是大概率事件。但是到了下半月,在電廠存煤量下降、大秦線臨近秋季集中檢修、階段性存煤期來臨的情況下,電廠采購和派船拉運將有所恢復,煤炭市場或將出現復蘇。8月下旬市場煤價格能否企穩止跌,還應繼續觀望。

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